growth any time soon,” said Jay Gelb, director, Barclays Capital. “My estimate is that the industry will probably show a decline in 2010, as well, which would be the worst track record of growth for the industry since the Great Depression.” The economic downturn is impacting commercial insurers more than those who focus on personal lines because commercial insurers’ fortunes are tied more closely to the slowdown in new business formation, payroll declines, and reduced construction spending, Gelb added.

In the personal lines market, larger property insurers are reducing their market share in coastal communities or buying more reinsurance, the panel agreed, creating a situation where smaller insurers are taking on more risk.

Sitting in Damocles’ Chair “The industry is going to take a hit on claims handling when the next big storm comes,” predicted Brian Sullivan, editor and publisher of Auto Insurance Report and Property Insurance Report, pointing to the rise of smaller property insurers in states such as Florida.

The panel also agreed that the creation of a Federal Insurance Office within the U.S. Treasury Department was a likely outcome of the current regulatory reform debate in Washington, D.C.

Brought to You By … The Forum is sponsored by ACORD, American Institute for Chartered Property Casualty Underwriters, American Insurance Association, the Association of Bermuda Insurers and Reinsurers, The Geneva Association, Institute for Business & Home Safety, Insurance Information Institute, Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, International Insurance Society, ISO, National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies, National Council on Compensation Insurance, National Insurance Crime Bureau, Property Casualty Insurers Association of America, Property Loss Research Bureau and Reinsurance Association of America.